While the world gears up to watch COP31, the 31st Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC, to be held at Antalya, Türkiye, from November 9-20, 2026, this article outlines what needs to be achieved. With COP31 being led by Türkiye at such a critical COP, the initiative aims to overcome the world’s differences and ensure that the holdovers from COP30 in Belém, Brazil, are addressed. This one-of-a-kind COP setup, with a shared presidency and negotiations led by Australia, places Türkiye at the helm as a facilitator in an ever-changing world of politics with a Mediterranean twist.
COP 31 Innovative Framework: A Recap
COP31 marks a new three-way system in history. Türkiye is both the formal host and president, leading the World Leaders Summit in Antalya. Australia is the “President of Negotiations” in formal negotiations. Finally, “the pre-COP is organized by a Pacific island state, focusing on the most vulnerable countries,” which was born out of a diplomatic compromise to cut costs and make it more inclusive. With Türkiye on board as the formal host, there is potential to revive its grand ambitions in clean energy and sustainable tourism. This is provided that its seamless cooperation with Australia sets a precedent for future COPs.
Achieving Momentum from COP30
COP30 pushed forward adaptation finance with the aim of doubling adaptation finance by 2025 and tripling it by 2035, and established the Just Transition Work Program, but delayed the phasing out of fossil fuels, although many states called for an earlier date. COP31 can take advantage of the momentum achieved thus far. It is expected to update the Nationally Determined Contributions for 2035 in line with the adoption of the Net Zero goal.
Priority Areas for Actionable Outcomes
To be declared a success, COP31 should register positive developments in the following aspects:
Climate Finance Mobilization
Expectations include scaling the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) to USD 1.3 trillion each year by 2035, prioritizing grants to deal with loss and damage. Türkiye may highlight new and innovative sources of funding, such that it can encourage new commitments, similar to those achieved through the Pacific Resilience Facility (PRF), considering Australia’s commitments. The goal is to see new finance committed to a level of at least USD 300 billion.
Transition and Mitigation of Fossil Fuels
Regarding the COP30 deferments, COP31 must pledge to eliminate subsidies and new licenses for 1.5°C targets. As a mediator between energy-exporting and -importing countries, Türkiye must call for tech transfers for REs, and Australia’s credibility is expected in the clean energy transition. Expected is growth in carbon markets and non-CO2 emissions. Innovations are expected from the experiences of the Tropical Forests Forever Facility.
Adaptation and Resilience
With the Pacific pre-COP in focus, tripling adaptation funds and embedding resilience in NDCs are key. Türkiye’s coastal expertise could drive solutions for small island states, including early warning systems and nature-based infrastructure. Integration with biodiversity goals will ensure holistic sustainability.
Outlook for Success
A successful COP31 will provide a concrete commitment to finance, mitigation, and adaptation to reach 1.5°C targets. Through its COP31, Türkiye might position itself as a renowned bridge between climate nations, making Antalya a symbol of global unity. There is a need to gear up towards implementation diplomacy.
