A recent analysis by the Pakistan Solar Association (PSA) reveals that the country’s distributed solar energy generation is substantially higher than official records indicate. In fiscal year 2025, approximately 27% of Pakistan’s total electricity generation was met by distributed solar systems that remain invisible in national grid data. This indicates that roughly 51 TWh of generation bypassed official statistics. Experts warn that this lack of visibility leads to flawed system planning and misdirected investment decisions, urging the government to modernize its national energy strategy.
An analysis of Lahore Electric Supply Company (LESCO) data indicates a dramatic drop in midday grid electricity demand during peak sunshine hours. The midday load profile, which stood around 2.2 GW in 2024, plummeted to roughly 765 MW by 2026. Conversely, evening net demand surges by more than 1.1 GW within a rapid four-hour window. The PSA underscores that millions of unmetered, off-grid and behind-the-meter solar installations account for this shift.
This rapid solar boom across Pakistan has been driven by escalating retail power tariffs, high capacity payments made to independent power producers, steep price drops for Chinese photovoltaic modules, and chronic power outages. Consumers rapidly turning to self-generation has caught transmission system operators off guard. Furthermore, expanding electric vehicle uptake is also failing to be fully captured in grid load projections.
To address current forecasting and planning deficiencies, the PSA urges Pakistani regulators to adopt frameworks modeled after Australia and the United Kingdom. Australia’s Integrated System Plan (ISP) could serve as a blueprint for incorporating distributed energy resources into the national roadmap, while the UK offers a reference model for grid flexibility and demand response. The association emphasizes that failing to record accurate generation data produces costly consequences, notably severe forecasting errors and capital misallocation.
Source: Solarbaba – In Turkish
