An International Energy Agency report prepared for Türkiye and Australia finds that a proposed global electrification goal is within reach. Delivering it will take far more than a target.
Electricity is moving into parts of the economy once dominated by oil and gas. Cars plug in. Heat pumps warm homes. Factories increasingly use electricity for processes that once burned fuel. At the same time, air conditioning, data centres and artificial intelligence are adding new demands of their own. From 2015 to 2025, global electricity use grew by more than 3 percent a year, twice as fast as overall energy demand, according to a new International Energy Agency report.
The report, published on Sept. 22 at the request of Türkiye and Australia, arrives as governments prepare for COP31 in Türkiye. The COP31 presidency is advancing a goal it calls “35 by 35”: electricity would meet 35 percent of global final energy consumption by 2035. Countries are considering whether to adopt that goal. For now, electricity’s share stands at about 23 percent.
The IEA’s finding is encouraging, with an important qualification. Based on technologies available today and energy prices before the current supply shock, it calculates that competitively electrifying existing uses could raise electricity’s share to 33 percent. Its High Electrification Scenario reaches 35 percent by 2035. Neither number is a forecast of what current policies will achieve: the first measures economic potential, while the second describes a faster transition that would require action to make it happen.
Where the opportunity lies
Transport offers the clearest example of both progress and the distance left to travel. Electric vehicles accounted for nearly a quarter of new car sales worldwide in 2025, up from less than 1 percent a decade earlier. But cars stay on the road for years. Electricity still supplied only about 2 percent of transport’s final energy use in 2025. In the IEA’s faster-electrification scenario, that share rises to 13 percent by 2035.
Buildings and industry present different opportunities. The IEA estimates that roughly half of residential fuel consumption could be electrified competitively, as could almost 40 percent of fossil-fuelled low- and medium-temperature industrial heat. Heat pumps could replace some fuel-based heating, while electric equipment could serve many industrial processes. The opportunities vary by country, depending on climate, energy prices, equipment costs and access to finance.
The economics are easier to understand when measured by the service delivered rather than the price of a unit of energy. Electricity may cost more per kilowatt-hour than a fossil fuel, but an electric motor or heat pump can use that energy much more efficiently. On the IEA’s global averages, $100 spent on electricity takes an electric car about three times as far as $100 spent on gasoline takes a conventional car. For home heating, its comparison finds that $100 powers a heat pump for 42 days, against 30 days for a gas boiler. Those operating savings, however, do not erase the difficulty of paying for new equipment upfront.
That distinction matters for households and smaller businesses. A technology can be economical over its lifetime and still remain out of reach for someone who cannot afford the initial purchase or obtain a loan on reasonable terms. The IEA says policy support may be needed to lower upfront costs and widen access to affordable capital.
Security, emissions and the power system
For countries that import fuel, electrification also offers a measure of protection against volatile markets. In the IEA’s faster-electrification scenario, fuel-importing countries reduce oil imports by 15 million barrels a day from their 2025 level by 2035. Electrification in buildings and industry avoids annual natural gas imports of 120 billion cubic metres. At 2025 import prices, the agency estimates that the combined annual import-bill savings would exceed $400 billion. These are modelled outcomes, dependent on the pace and shape of the transition.
The climate result depends in part on how the additional power is produced. In the IEA’s High Electrification Scenario, carbon dioxide emissions from transport, buildings and industry fall 40 percent by 2035 from their 2025 level. Pairing electrification with a faster expansion of low-emissions power would cut total energy-sector emissions by more than half. Electric equipment can reduce fuel use; cleaner generation makes the emissions benefit much larger.
There is a practical constraint running through all these projections: power systems must be able to serve new demand reliably. Generation, transmission and distribution networks require investment. More wind and solar power call for storage and flexibility, while a more electricity-dependent economy must also contend with cyber threats, extreme weather and concentrated supply chains for some technologies and minerals. The IEA and COP31 participants have identified grids, storage and finance as central to making faster electrification possible.
The challenge is immediate for Türkiye as well as global. In a separate energy policy review published this month, the IEA noted that Türkiye’s electricity demand grew by almost 5 percent annually from 2005 to 2024. Renewables supplied 43 percent of its electricity in 2025, but imported fuels, grid capacity and system flexibility remain significant concerns. The agency points to storage, demand-side response and better planning of industrial and power infrastructure as part of the work ahead.
The proposed 35 percent goal gives COP31 a clear measure of ambition. The IEA report gives negotiators a reason to take it seriously: much of the technology already exists, and considerable potential is competitive at today’s costs. Whether the goal becomes credible will depend on the decisions that follow it—how countries expand grids and clean power, help people afford electric alternatives, and make reliable electricity available where it is needed.
